Análise comportamental da produção agrícola no municipio de Sousa-PB em período de escassez hídrica.

Abstract

Periodic water deficiency in the semi-arid northeast has affected agricultural production and consequently the region's economy. The last water crisis that occurred in this region between 2012 and 2017 caused the almost total loss of agricultural production in several municipalities. The municipality of Sousa fits into this profile, located in the hinterland of Paraíba, which had a relevant decree on agricultural production in its two irrigated perimeters: Irrigated Perimeter of São Gonçalo (PISG) and Irrigated Perimeter of Várzeas de Sousa (PIVAS). Coconut and banana production, which are the main crops in both perimeters, became irrelevant to the region's trade, resulting in unemployment among settlers and others involved in production. The objective of this research is to verify the behavior of this crisis through statistical analyzes of the production of the main agricultural crops in the municipality of Sousa-PB concomitantly with the water volume of the reservoirs that serve this production in the period from 1994 to 2022. Regarding procedures The methodological methods were applied to descriptive statistics on municipal agricultural production data as well as the volume of reservoirs supplying the perimeters. The Mann-Kendall (trend), Pettitt (homogeneity) and Dickey Fuller (stationarity) tests were used. The results show that all crops showed a significant drop during the dry period (2012 to 2017). For banana, coconut and corn crops it was found that there is no trend in the series and for homogeneity it was found that only corn and beans did not show a break in the series, that is, the variance of the data turned around a single average, corroborating the stationarity test which also demonstrated that only these crops behave in a stationary manner. The application of tests in the Mãe d’água and São Gonçalo reservoirs, which supply the perimeters, also showed a decrease during the dry period, as well as a rupture in homogeneity. The series appeared as non-stationary and although the Mãe d’água reservoir showed a slight trend, it behaved negatively. Thus, although some crops showed an increase in production after this crisis, none of the crops returned to production as before the period of the water crisis. It is also possible to state that there is a relationship between the decrease in agricultural production and the volume of the São Gonçalo and Mãe D’água reservoirs, as the losses occurred in the same period (2012 to 2017) and caused economic and social impacts throughout the region.