Cenários futuros de temperatura máxima do ar na região do MATOPIBA.

Abstract

In Brazil, the MATOPIBA region (made up of portions of the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) has strategic importance in the country's economy driven by the agricultural sector, however, research warns that the region has been experiencing changes in climate. The climate study starts from the analysis of data and time series in order to identify a pattern or changes over a time step. In this work, trends are confirmed based on the maximum air temperature in the MATOPIBA region for groups of hydrographic areas, as well as the projections of global climate models resulting from CMIP6 are analyzed. The time series used for the historical period from January 1961 to December 2018 are CRU-TS-4.03 reanalyses with a spatial resolution of 0.5° from the University of East Anglia, as well as CMIP6 global climate model data from WorldClim Global Climate Data (https://www.worldclim. org/data/cmip6) for the 2021-2040, 2041- 2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100 time periods for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 concentration scenarios. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests were applied to analyze trends in the groups of homogeneous areas at a significance level of p-value <0.005. Groups (G1) and (G3) showed the greatest increase in maximum air temperature (with a good representation of micro-regions in Maranhão and Tocantins). The Pettitt test indicated a breakpoint for all 4 groups and increments of 1°C in the change in the series averages. For the 21st century projections, 7 global climate models were selected to make up the ensemble (BCC-CSM-MR, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSLCM6A- LR, MIROC-ES2L and MIROC6). The results observed from the projections indicate that the MATOPIBA region could increase by an average of 3 to 5.9°C in the long term for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8. 5 respectively. Furthermore, the region could go from a historical average of 31.7°C (1961-2018) to 34.6°C by the end of the century (2081-2100) for the SSP2-4.5 intermediate scenario to 37.5°C for the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and that 65% of MATOPIBA will have an average equal to or greater than the observed average. Finally, regardless of the concentration scenario, the projections indicate that the region will, on average, show increases in maximum air temperature.